How can you validate a startup idea? A feature? A pricing model? A go-to-market tactic?

Usually when this question is asked it is because someone is trying to get some level of confidence that a product, function, or tactic will work before actually doing it.

Coming from a startup founder or a product exec, it’s a legitimate question. With limited resources, a hundred fires to put out, and the shortest-ever deadlines, wouldn’t it be nice to get some guarantees before committing?

Unfortunately, you can’t. At least, not in the way that it is usually asked for.

If you want to validate that something works, you’ll have to make it, ship it into the world, and see if it yields the expected results. Period.

Even if it does yield the expected results, this "validation" is still conditional on contextual factors. It worked at that specific time, with those specific people, when the rest of the market and the whole world were in that specific state. A change in the market, the emergence of new technology, a significant world event, or even just a bad weather report, could easily tip the scales.

That being said, there are ways to de-risk the venture-building process.

Talking to your customers frequently will help you develop empathy and understand how they think, feel, and see the world. Looking at existing solutions, best practices, how incumbents are doing it, or how a similar problem has been solved in adjacent industries can help you identify opportunities and avoid pitfalls. Running surveys and experiments can help you to assess traction more quantitatively.

These are great ways to learn, test the waters, and help you be more deliberate with what you're trying to launch. However, do not mistake that it never provides any guarantees, ever. Just because people say yes in a form, click on an ad, register for a beta, or tell you something in an interview, doesn't mean that the thing you're building will work. There are too many variables at play in a constantly changing playing field.

Our most important piece of advice here is to keep moving forward. It's easy to get stuck in analysis paralysis or to endlessly chase the perfect idea before launching anything. Instead, each experiment or research you undertake should help increase the fidelity and depth of what you’re making, towards launch.

If you're seeking methodologies to run experiments and de-risk your business ideas, "Testing Business Ideas" by Strategyzer is a great handbook.